Since the 2021 local government elections, South Africa has held 432 ward by-elections. Behind every one is a vacancy, a resignation, a death, a councillor expelled or defected. Together, they form a record of how local power shifts between general elections.

Of the 432 by-elections held since 2022, 119, just over one in four, resulted in a different party winning the seat.

The ANC retained only 73% of the ward seats it is forced to defend – the worst performance of any major party. The DA and IFP both defended 83% of their seats. Put another way: when the ANC faces a by-election, it loses the seat about one time in four. When the DA faces one, it loses one in six.

The ANC has shed 68 seats since 2022. The biggest single beneficiary is the IFP, which has taken 21 ANC seats. Behind it come the Patriotic Alliance (12), the DA (11), the EFF (10), and the still-young MK (8). This diversity of challengers is what makes the picture so uncomfortable for the ANC: it is not being beaten by one dominant opposition, but by a different opponent in every region.

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