South Africa’s diesel price is set for another painful increase in May, driven by the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran and its knock-on effect on global oil markets.

Fuel prices already surged at the start of April, diesel rose by R7.51 per litre in Gauteng, pushing the wholesale price to R26.11. The government cushioned the blow with a temporary R3 per litre cut to the General Fuel Levy, running from 1 April to 5 May 2026.

That relief is about to expire. According to the Central Energy Fund (CEF), if oil prices hold at current levels, a further diesel increase of around R9 per litre is likely in May, according to BusinessTech, putting retail prices around R35 per litre,  assuming the levy relief is extended. If it isn’t, prices could climb even higher.

The root cause is the war. US and Israeli strikes on Iran at the end of February caused Iran to retaliate and close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global oil supply. Brent crude, which peaked around $110 per barrel in early April, has since eased to around $97.