Government spending on essential social services has barely recovered since the Covid pandemic. For some services, it is not keeping up with population growth.

We adjusted 20 years of government spending on education, social protection, health, housing and defence for inflation and the results are mixed.

Some budgets grew significantly in the 2000s but have since plateaued or shrunk. Health spending rose steadily until Covid, then was cut and has only partially recovered. Education spending peaked in 2019 and only returned to that level in 2025. Housing surged between 2005 and 2013 but has stagnated since. Social protection spiked during Covid, when millions received the R350-a-month social relief of distress grant, and has since stabilised. Defence has been in slow decline for two decades.

The deeper concern is per-person spending. Health spending dropped from R4,886 per person in 2019 to R4,523 in 2025. Using StatsSA's population growth estimates and the Reserve Bank's 3% inflation target, per-person health spending will keep falling through 2029. Education faces the same pressure.

Read the full GroundUp article here.