In the first nine months of 2025, Johannesburg recorded 1,611 murders. There were fewer murders than during the same period in 2023 and 2024. That’s a notable shift. But it’s not all good news: murder numbers between January and September 2025 are still higher than they were before 2022.

So what does this mean? For now, it’s too early to say whether Johannesburg is witnessing the start of a genuine decrease or merely a temporary drop. The picture is incomplete, with murder statistics for October to December 2025 still outstanding.

This uncertainty echoes what the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) said in May 2025. The ISS noted a downward trend in national murder numbers and described the reduction as “good news”. But it also warned that it’s unclear whether this is an outlier in a longer upward trend, or the beginning of a sustained decrease linked to stronger governance.

The ISS also points to when and how these murders happen: about half occur over weekends, with many linked to the excessive use of alcohol, drugs, or both.

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